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October 2015

Daily Currency Insight

Published: Monday 26 October 2015

 

Well done to Australia and New Zealand for reaching the Rugby World Cup Final. They both started as bookies favourites, so we shouldn't be surprised I guess. So whilst Australasia was celebrating that, Brits could celebrate Lewis Hamilton matching Jackie Stewart's record of three world Championships but Lewis has taken two in a row. Awesome work Lewis. I guess Police Officers will now be asking "who do you think you are; Lewis Hamilton?" when they pull you over for doing 34 in a 30mph zone. That was an accolade only Stirling Moss, Jim Clark and Jackie Stewart have held up until now.
 
The Peoples Bank of China chose Friday to cut the Chinese base rate and release further funds into the Chinese economy by cutting the amount of money Chinese banks have to hold as reserves. Initially that strengthened equity markets around Asia and elsewhere and it strengthened the currencies of countries that export raw materials and commodities. However, there has been some unwinding of those moves as the realisation has sunk in that this is not a panacea and the global economy has a long and winding road to travel before we can consider things are really on the up.
 
The week ahead is a great place to start that journey because it has a bountiful supply of data and news events. Central Bankers will be in the news on the interest rate front. The US federal Reserve is unlikely to do anything of substance but may well talk about the timing of the first tightening of monetary policy and I expect that to have been pushed out until at least Q1 of next year and maybe later.
 
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also make an interest rate announcement but no change is forecast based on their recent comments. The NZ Dollar is stronger ahead of that announcement due on Wednesday.
 
Amongst a host of other data, we will also get the economic growth data for Quarter 3 in both the UK and US. Both sets of data are preliminary; i.e. they are based on only a proportion of all available data, and both releases are expected to reflect a minor slowdown in activity. However, as the retail sales data showed for the UK, the weather and the Rugby World Cup have boosted activity, so the 2.4% forecast for the UK may well be an underestimate and the Pound has room to strengthen if it is. Beware if you are a Sterling buyer.
 
And last week brought a charity event with a difference. 57 people rode a roller coaster in Southend to raise over £10,000 for Southend Hospital Charitable Foundation’s Keyhole Cancer Appeal. Well done them, especially when you consider last week was a bit nippy and they did it in the buff. I have to say, 57 people on a roller coaster in the nude gives a whole new meaning to wobbly bits.
 

Late call

 
A couple are lying in bed at 11.00pm when the phone rings. The husband rolls over and picks up the handset. All the wife hears is the husband say, "How the hell do I know. The BBC website is your best bet mate". He puts the handset down and rolls back over.
"Who was that?" asks the wife.
"Some guy wanting a cricket update".
"At 11pm?" says the wife.
"Well I guess that was what he wanted", said the husband. "He just said, 'Is he out?'"
 

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