Daily Currency Insights

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_305826085-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-33647 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-33647 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="" />

Fed talks continue

This evening’s Fed policy update is the key market event today. Mixed economic data and uncertainties ahead argue for a largely wait-and-see approach by policymakers. The number one issue for the Fed will be the timing of any ‘tapering’ of its asset purchases.

Money from Canada: Canadian Dollars. Bills spread and variation of amounts.

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_223815347-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-33635 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-33635 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="Money from Canada: Canadian Dollars. Bills spread and variation of amounts." />

Focus on the Fed

The GBP/USD pair edged higher through the early European session this morning. The pair attracted some buying during the first half of the trading action on Tuesday and recovered a part of the overnight slump to four-week lows.

Various of international money coin and banknote with blurred hourglass in the background. Time investment with currency exchange concept. Focus on dollar banknote.

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_213658817-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-33621 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-33621 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="Various of international money coin and banknote with blurred hourglass in the background. Time investment with currency exchange concept. Focus on dollar banknote." />

To taper or not to taper?

As the US Federal Reserve and other central banks hold meetings this week, here are key questions regarding their monetary policies. The Fed, the European Central Bank, and their peers in Japan, Britain, and elsewhere brought down interest rates and unleashed huge asset-buying programmes last year to prevent an economic catastrophe.

US retail sales

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_122508412-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32894 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32894 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="US retail sales" />

US Retail Sales surprise markets as consumers show strength despite delta fears

Economists expected consumers to cut back their activity as the delta variant continued its tear through the U.S. Persistent supply chain bottlenecks also were expected to hold back spending as in-demand goods were hard to find.

USA ecenomy and dollar concept

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_222834736-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32872 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32872 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="USA ecenomy and dollar concept" />

An air of confidence in the US

There was a generally more confident mood in the world of investors yesterday as oil prices rose and US data calmed nerves. US crude oil stocks dropped by 6.422 million barrels and that prompted higher oil prices and US import prices fell for the first time since October 2020, suggesting the wave of inflation may be plateauing.

USA national flag and the dollar bills. Business and finance concept

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_298649919-1-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32860 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32860 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="USA national flag and the dollar bills. Business and finance concept" />

USD recovers on reduced ‘tapering’ mood

US consumer price inflation was surprisingly subdued in August. A 0.1% monthly rise brought the annual rate of inflation down to 4%. That was certainly at odds with my expectations and I wasn’t alone, so it seems.

Australian Currency

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_27145002-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32848 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32848 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="Australian Currency" />

AUD weaker as RBA Governor offers cautious words

Sterling’s part in that GBPAUD rise comes from better than forecast UK employment data. 183,000 fresh jobs were created in the three months to July and July unemployment rate is down to 4.6% whilst average earnings rose 8.3%.

us dollar vs canadian dollar

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_44319520-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32830 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32830 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="us dollar vs canadian dollar" />

USD recovers ahead of inflation data

In the financial markets, things were a little quieter. Friday’s Canadian employment data was better than expected in some ways. The unemployment rate dropped down to 7.1%, better than forecast, but jobs growth was only 90,000 and the markets had been expecting 100,000 plus.

New British One Pound Sterling Coin Chart Rate

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_152610534-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32816 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32816 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="New British One Pound Sterling Coin Chart Rate" />

UK data broadly supports Sterling

This morning started with a barrage of UK data. Sadly, some of it was a little disappointing. A quick run-through shows the economy grew just 0.1% in the month to August and construction output grew 8.6% in the year to July. That was 20% lower than expected.

Chinese Factory

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_91199111-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32798 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32798 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="Chinese Factory" />

Chinese factory gate inflation at 13 year high

It is not only in Britain that raw materials are rising at an alarming pace. China saw the highest factory-gate inflation level in 13 years in August. The producer price index was up 9.5% on the year and that puts pressure on output prices to export markets as well.

Euro coins piles on Europe map with British pound sterling coins Brexit crisis

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_115227426-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32793 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32793 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="Euro coins piles on Europe map with British pound sterling coins Brexit crisis" />

Eurozone recovery should bring early monetary tightening

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia gets their base rate at 0.1% and forecast that it will remain at this record low until 2024. However, they did scale back their bond-buying programme from AUD 5 million worth of bonds per week down to AUD 4 million.

bank notes

<img width="260" height="185" src="https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_95075822-260x185.jpeg" class="wp-image-32781 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-32781 attachment-portfolio_small size-portfolio_small wp-post-image lazyload lazyload" alt="bank notes" />

AUD volatile as RBA base rate on hold but bond buying slows

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia gets their base rate at 0.1% and forecast that it will remain at this record low until 2024. However, they did scale back their bond-buying programme from AUD 5 million worth of bonds per week down to AUD 4 million.

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