The data diary for the US is light this week, in the run up to the Thanksgiving holiday, but some key announcements include Tuesday’s home construction figures and the Jobless Claims report due on Thursday. Housing starts showed a drop for September, which was hoped to be a temporary blip, so those keeping a close eye on the US markets will have been relieved to see a significant rebound this time around, with building permits up to the highest level since 2007.
The week started slowly on the data and economic front, with Veterans Day in the USA and a number of public holidays across the globe to remember those we lost in past conflicts. This didn’t stop currency or stock markets from moving, however, or indeed stop politics from influencing these market movements.
The Bank of England publishes its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Minutes on Thursday, along with a report on monetary policy, in place of the usual quarterly inflation report. Markets do not expect much change in the UK’s inflation data, but expectations are growing of a decrease in interest rates. Whether this will be at Thursday’s meeting or the next is the question. Either report from the UK’s central bank could help or hinder the Pound, however, so markets will be watching for a range of signals and economic indicators on Thursday.
Trick or treat? There should be plenty of both this week and it should be a busy one for currency markets, with no fewer than three important central bank meetings and a raft of important economic data worldwide, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment figures and consumer confidence indices. On the other side, Friday brings a new month and with it a raft of Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI), always watched for economic indicators and meaningful nuggets for the markets.
This week is comparatively quiet as far as economic data is concerned, but there is still plenty of political fuel for currency volatility originating right across the globe. Highlights include Draghi’s last speech at the helm of the European Central Bank, ongoing Brexit and US-China trade talk sagas, all interspersed with some economic data releases across Europe and the Americas.
With the Brexit deadline looming ever closer, the economic data released for the UK and EU takes on even greater meaning this week, and the currency markets are responding. Any whisper of a decision or deal surrounding the Brexit negotiation process is having a profound effect on the Pound. The same is true for US data due this week, against the backdrop of US-China talks taking a negative turn once more.