Technical research articles

New Zealand dollar money banknote Edmund Hullary close-up

GBP | NZD Quarterly Forecast January – March 2020

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  Here are the main points of the GBPNZD Q1 forecast in 2020:   What difference will the US-China trade deal signing make? Disappointing NZ business surveys NZ average property prices at new high Triple hint at…

GBP | AUD Quarterly Forecast January – March 2020

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Here are the main points of the GBPAUD Q1 forecast in 2020:   Fire ravages country and could also hit economic growth Trade war deal not all good news for AUD GDP fall increases pressure for UK interest rate cut Economic…
market chart and dollars banknote

GBP | USD Quarterly Forecast January – March 2020

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Here are the main points of the GBPUSD Q1 Forecast in 2020:   US trade agreement with China just first step American economy ‘in a good place” UK faces economic struggles before new trade deals   In common with…

Sterling , New Zealand Dollar Monthly Forecast

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Since a typical mid-market low of 1.838 against the New Zealand Dollar at the end of July, the Pound has seen gains on hopes that a Brexit deal can be reached. In fact, GBP has broken the 1.95 mark in September 2019. This is a considerable gain for the beleaguered Pound. 

Sterling , New Zealand Dollar Monthly Forecast August 2019

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The outcome for GBPNZD could hardly be more different from the start of July to the end. The monthly high of 1.895 in interbank rates came on 2nd July, when the Tory leadership contenders said they wanted to reach agreement with the European Union. 

Sterling , New Zealand Dollar Quarterly Forecast July-September 2019

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Once again, the main focus of GBP-NZD has been on the UK and Brexit and the associated political fall-out. The same is likely to be true over the next few months as the new Prime Minister – either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt – seeks to find a solution or crashes out of Europe by 31st October with no deal. But there has been some interesting developments in New Zealand too, where its central bank cut interest rates in May, the first reduction in two and a half years. In addition, there were some expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could cut rates again. As a result, Sterling fell from 1.99 in typical mid-market rates against the kiwi on 6th May to 1.91 a month later. This was due to stronger New Zealand economic growth than anticipated and comments by the US Federal Reserve that its interest rates could be cut, which made the Reserve Bank decision more understandable. Brexit and UK political issues have also played a major part in the weaker Pound. Then, around 23rd June, the value of GBPNZD fell again from 1.93 to 1.89, with credit spending higher than expected and hopes that the US-China trade wars might soon end. That means in the last two months, the Pound has fallen around 2.5% against the New Zealand Dollar.

Sterling , Euro Quarterly Forecast

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The peak and trough of the last three months between the Pound and the Euro have each involved major Brexit events. 

Sterling , Australian Dollar Quarterly Forecast

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The price of the raw materials exported by Australia has a direct effect on the strength of the Australian currency, so when the price of oil or gold fluctuates, so does the Australian Dollar against its key currency partners – usually the US Dollar and British Pound. Lower commodity prices drag the Australian Dollar down; and the opposite is true when commodities are in a boom phase.

GBP versus USD, hardly a fair fight

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It’s hardly a fair fight. The strengthening US Dollar has been battering the weakened Pound in the last month, reducing the high of 1.320 in mid-July to 1.272 at time of writing, a smidgen up from the 1.267 low in mid-August. 

The two big worries hanging over AUD and GBP

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GBP-AUD has been pretty stable over the last month, ranging just 0.32% from a low of 1.751 to a high of 1.795 in mid-market rates. The low point for Sterling was in early June, when the Aussie dollar rose on a series of better than expected business data.