currecncy insight

Japanese service sector weakens Yen

The Japanese yen had a busy overnight session after inflation data disappointed. Sterling fell about a cent against the US Dollar becoming more stable this morning, following very strong figures reflecting the rebound in UK retail sales. the day ahead is awash with purchasing managers indices from the EU, the UK and the US markets
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World vaccine-led recovery countered by COVID surge in India

Optimism about a developed world ‘vaccine led recovery’ is countered by surges in covid cases in India while coronavirus cases are dropping in the US as the world’s largest economy reached 40% of its population with at least one vaccination. European Central Bank is set to leave its policy unchanged
currecncy insight

NZ leaves Western intelligence in favour of China

Monday was marked by very clear weakness in the US Dollar prompted by improving covid prospects elsewhere and concern about the increasing numbers of young covid patients seen in US figures. The release of the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting included how their low interest rate policies were “contributing to a lower exchange rate than otherwise.”
currecncy insight

USD falls on improving prospects elsewhere

Monday was marked by very clear weakness in the US Dollar prompted by improving covid prospects elsewhere and concern about the increasing numbers of young covid patients seen in US figures. The release of the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting included how their low interest rate policies were “contributing to a lower exchange rate than otherwise.”
currecncy insight

New trading week finds global markets in a mixed mood

Currency Markets have kicked off the new week in a mixed mood, as US Treasury yields remain depressed despite upbeat US data. Cryptocurrencies have been attempting a recovery after collapsing over the weekend. GBPUSD is clinging to gains around 1.3850 as nearly half the population has received at least one vaccination
currecncy insight

USD strengthens – Dow and S&P at record highs

Dow and S&P indices his record highs last night as we see an easing of Treasury prices resulting in US Dollar rate being down three quarters of a cent to $1.3720 against the Pound. Part of the US Dollar strength is due to nervous investors watching the escalating tension in Ukraine and the tussle between the US and China over sanctions
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US oil stocks tumble but USD is serene

A 5.9 million barrel drop in US oil inventories was double the expected loss sending the price of crude oil to a one month high. US Federal Reserve speakers and the release of the Beige Book reported interest rates and monetary policy remaining low. In Australia, we see 70,700 new jobs being created and their unemployment rate coming down to 5.6%, the lowest since April 2020
currecncy insight

US Dollar drops on long term interest rate views

The story of the last 24 hours is the drop in the value of the US Dollar. Federal Reserve meeting minutes confirmed that inflation will stay low for an extended period, and bond yields will do likewise. Today we have speakers from the BOE, ECB and several Federal Reserve members.
currecncy insight

NZ businesses pessimistic for 14th quarter in a row

New Zealand business confidence took a hit in the first quarter of the year. A minus 13% reading on the survey is significantly worse than the last report and the 14th straight negative reading, going back to Q4 2017. It seems traders are...
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Sterling recovers as UK businesses reopen

Large parts of the economy can start to reopen as of today, so that’ll be seen as positive, and the Pound has already risen half a cent in early trade. This morning’s EU retail sales data may stall that as it is expected to show a healthy improvement.
currecncy insight

Sterling dips in early trade

Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee, says she thinks negative interest rates work well. Whether getting no yield or paying a bank to hold your deposits has any effect is a highly contentious debate, but this influential LSE Professor’s comments seem to have unnerved traders
currecncy insight

Sterling finds its feet

The Sterling – US Dollar rate has had a turbulent week, testing $1.39 on Monday and dropping to nearly $1.37 yesterday. It sits at $1.32770 this morning after a healthy rise in the RICS house price index. We will get the UK construction sector PMI later this morning and the US jobless claims numbers this afternoon, so the volatility isn’t over.
currecncy insight

GBPEUR declines due to Brexit uncertainties and the UK’s credit rating

The Pound drops almost 1% against a host of major currencies overnight as technical support levels are in reach after a recent run of Sterling growth over the last couple of weeks. I can understand The Pound losing some of the gains against most currencies but...
currecncy insight

Chocolate-Fuelled Weekend Gives Sterling a Sugar Rush

A combination of supporting factors helped the GBPUSD pair regain positive traction on the first day of a new week and move back above the 1.3900 mark. GBPEUR climbed to one-year highs of 1.1770 last week as concerns grew about the economic fallout...
currecncy insight

USD stalled by pending home data

UK Q4 GDP was upgraded to 1.3% in the three months to December. US pending home sales data reported 10.6% contraction in February, four times as bad as the market forecast. Australia reported a 1.7% decline in home loans, a 0.8% decline in retail sales and an AUD 2.6 billion contraction in Australia’s trade balance.
currecncy insight

NZ business confidence in negative territory

A sharp drop in New Zealand Business Confidence was reported overnight. The index, published by ANZ, showed a minus 4.1 reading in March, compared to a plus 7 reading in February. That negative effect was counterbalanced by...
currecncy insight

Failing Hedge fund threatens global banks

News that a US hedge fund /family office faces collapse and had been trading well beyond its means sent a shock wave through financial markets yesterday. The impact on several global banks could be as large as $6 billion, and questions are being asked about how a small hedge fund...
currecncy insight

Short week offers plenty of reasons for volatility

Friday was an interesting one where the Pound had yet another push to EUR 1.17 but consolidated below that level rather than breakthrough. That is the 5th attempt in just over a month, and you have to feel Sterling traders will crack that level at some stage...