currecncy insight

UK retailers gaining optimism

UK retailers endured a tough March; worse than had been forecast, but the core level of activity was better than forecast and retailers displayed rising optimism in the CBI survey. That makes sense when non-essential retail is due to be reopened in April and with...
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Beached freighter blocking Suez Canal hikes oil price

The Pound lost a little more ground against the US Dollar yesterday despite improved purchasing managers indices in the UK. GBPUSD rate has been falling since the spike we saw towards the end of February, the EUR-USD rate has completed a similar reversal at $1.18.
currecncy insight

USD stronger on further safe haven flows

Tuesday was dominated by US Dollar strength with the GBPUSD rate below $1.37. This morning’s soft inflation data didn’t support Sterling. GBPNZD stormed up to 1.9670 overnight and is still just above 1.96 this morning. This afternoon sees the Federal Reserve Chairman’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee in Washington...
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UK employment data boosts GBP

Monday was a combination of consolidation and mini spikes. The shock dive in the Turkish Lira’s value calmed down. Europe returned to lockdown in several areas unnerving traders and investors. New Zealand Prime Minister tries to ”tilt the balance” of the NZ housing market towards first-time buyers and curb the excesses of property speculators
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Turkish Lira drops 15% as central bank governor replaced

In a surprise move in the early hours of Saturday, President Erdogan of Turkey sacked the central bank Governor and appointed Sahap Kavcioglu...
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PM to have AstraZeneca jab as he urges public to do the same

The prime minister receives his first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine after reassuring the public it was “safe”. Boris Johnson, 56, has urged people to get inoculated and said...
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USD strengthens on oil and Fed

The price of crude oil dropped for the fifth day in a row as US stockpiles increased. That caused the GBPUSD rate to drop. New Zealand saw a 0.9% contraction in their GDP in the year to December while Australia’s improvement in the unemployment rate to just 5.8%, driven mainly by full-time jobs was good news
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Pound recovers after rollercoaster ride

Early yesterday saw Sterling fall to multi-week lows across the board following the news that the AstraZeneca vaccine, widely used in the UK, is being suspended in several European countries. By day end, the pound was able to recover after...
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EU countries suspend AstraZeneca vaccine

Several countries suspended the AstraZeneca jab, however, the World Health Organization (WHO) said there was no link with reported side effects. Sterling markets will be keeping an eye on the Bank of England policy announcement on Thursday
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Sterling drops on unexpected news

Sterling has a good opportunity to test $1.40 again after Accenture reported a survey result showing that UK businesses had a greater propensity to bounce back in 2021 than most other economies; the best since 2015. GBPEUR is still hovering half a cent below the €1.17 ceiling. Other than Eurozone inflation and a German business sentiment index, this is a hollow week for EU data
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UK GDP better than forecast in January

The UK economy only shrank by 2.9% in January, about half the market expectation. The pound was also hit by a drop in manufacturing production. The GBPUSD did test $1.40 again overnight but is back a half a cent down on that after the GDP and manufacturing data.
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USD weaker on soft inflation

US Dollar was the primary mover yesterday as USD weakens across the board. The OPEC report, initial jobless claims and job openings data are also out this afternoon which could also impact the USD, Sterling was boosted by a positive RICS report on the UK housing market. 52% of those surveyed see growth in house prices...
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Sterling in Stasis

This morning is a bit like Groundhog Day as far as the Pound is concerned. It’s as though Tuesday didn’t happen. GBPUSD is $1.3870. GBPEUR is just below yesterday’s €1.1690 and other GBP based rates are similarly frozen in time.
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Very poor Japanese data knocks JPY

The Sterling – Japanese Yen rate has been rising since September 2020, and it spiked again overnight when disappointing data emanated from Japan. The day ahead brings Eurozone GDP data. The forecasts suggest a contraction of 5% in the year to December, which would damage the euro. Despite a healthier German trade surplus, reported this morning, the GBPEUR rate starts...
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US Treasury yields touch new highs

US Treasury yields touched new highs for the year on Friday. US dollar moved sharply higher against the euro. BoE Governor Bailey’s speech today will be his first public comments since last week’s budget.
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US Bond yields push USD higher

US 10‑year Treasury yields increased above 1.5% yesterday following Fed Chair Powell’s comments. The ‘risk off’ tone added support for the US dollar, as sterling fell below $1.39 and the euro below $1.20. Today’s US monthly employment report will be closely watched as total employment is still nearly 10 million below pre‑pandemic levels...
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Markets shrug off UK Budget

Sterling to sink? Not under Sunak. The Chancellor surprised markets by announcing a "super deduction" for firms that would encourage investment. In the US, weekly initial jobless claims will provide insight on the state of the labour market ahead of tomorrow's monthly report...
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Budget 2021 to be announced in Parliament today

Rishi Sunak’s Budget will be announced at Parliament today - the furlough scheme will be extended until September protecting UK jobs but government borrowing will rise to £340bn to be paid back in the form of tax hikes. The ideal outcome for the pound is an economically expansive budget without talk of tax hikes to come; we’ll find out more at 12.30pm.